“You Retire Once… I Help People Retire Everyday”
After a rough start to kick off the month, the bull market continued as virtually every major index finished the month positive in the usually weak month of September. In fact, the cherry on top to close out the month was the S&P 500 hitting a 43rd all-time high for the calendar year. For those keeping track at home, that monthly advance marks eight of the first nine months of the year (with only the usually bullish month of April in the red) and up 10 of 11 months going back to last November.
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So where do we go from here? With theS&P 500 up more than 20% for the year, historically October has done quite poorly in years that were up nicely heading into it. In fact, seven of the nine times the S&P 500 was up more than 20% YTD heading into October saw stocks fall the 10th month of the year with an average decline of3.0%.
That’s the bad news. The good news is things are skewed greatly by 1987 and, more often than not, the fourth quarter still manages to finish higher, with solid gains the remainder of the final quarter of the year.
Looking past possible October volatility, the fourth quarter overall is higher nearly 80% of the time and up4.3% on average, making it far and away the best quarter of the year. Furthermore, with it being an election year, Q4 is historically one of the strongest during a presidential cycle.
The bottom line, this the best start to any year as of the end of September since 1997. Investors have been rewarded by sticking with a glass half full mentality amid the incessant negativity.Could we see a negative October surprise? Absolutely, but I would suggest investors use that as an opportunity to benefit from potentially higher prices before 2024 is done.
I hope you enjoy the read. With not only the month of September to unpack, I also discuss why Q3 was extraordinary for investors in addition to looking ahead at the spooky season.
Thanks for the trust you put in both myself, and Sterling Mutuals. My commitment to you, a valued investor and partner, is and always will be to continue to share my unbiased opinion of what is happening under the hood in the world of financial markets. Putting context into the situation helps clients become well informed, better educated, and ultimately successful investors.
Regardless of the path ahead, you can be confident that you have an investment professional in your corner who is committed to your success every step along the way.
Thanks for taking time out of your day to become better informed.
-Aaron Pedlar
