“You Retire Once… I Help People Retire Everyday”
After a brief dip in April and despite some weaker-than-expected economic data, equity markets quickly renewed their enthusiasm throughout the month of May. While it is difficult to stop the force of a young bull market, the catalyst behind this change in sentiment from April was primarily the inflation data in the U.S. which came in lower than expected snapping a three-month run of upside surprises.
Virtually all asset classes, aside from WIT Oil, appreciated in value over various degrees during the month of May. Perhaps the phrase should be revised to‘Invest in May and Stay’.
In fact, the S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a negative May dating back all the way to 2019. The positive performance of the S&P 500 during May 2024 was the best in 15 years. So what does this mean moving forward? If history is any indication, looking at the 10 best monthly returns ever in May shows that future returns have been historically quite favourable. The rest of the year up double the average year (10.5% vs.4.9%) and June up 1.0% on average versus slightly negative.
As a long-term thoughtful investor, it’s the not the short term that concerns me. Rather, it’s the long-term picture that keeps me on the side of optimistic. Behind a few cracks in the macro picture of the economy that the media and talking heads on television want to point out remains an economy that remains incredibly resilient. Corporate earnings were once again very positive, people are still employed at very high levels and all though wage growth has slowed down people are still earning inflation adjusted higher wages. Sounds like a great combination to achieve the proverbial ‘soft landing’. But time will tell.
Please see attached this month’s edition ofMarket Perspectives where we delve into the month of May further and highlight the bull markets confirmation signal and some positive developments with the ongoing tug-of-war battle between rates and inflation.
Additionally, Election Day 2024 is now just 22weeks away. If history is any indication, investors should expect things to heat up on the political front as each week passes between now and November 5th. As an investor, are you wondering how the presidential election could affect your investments? I posted a piece on this earlier this month so check it out under the 'Investment Planning' section on my blog.
In closing, regardless of the path ahead for financial markets you can be confident that you have an investment professional in your corner who is committed to your success every step along the way.
Thanks for taking time out of your day to be come better informed.
-Aaron Pedlar
